Would You Pay $50 For Another Season Of 'Community'?

I've spent the majority of the past fifteen years writing about new media, television and all the ways technology and entertainment are evolving. And one of the constant stories has been the way that technology and customer demands are changing the big media business.

I was doing financial news in San Francisco during the heyday of Napster in the late 1990s, when that company was successfully sued by the major music labels. I remember several music executives confidently arguing at the time that listening and buying music online would always be a secondary business.

Wrong again.

I've learned that the smartest people in the room, the ones who know the most about a business, might not be the ones who see the compelling nature of disruptive change. If you're running a profitable business, it's hard to imagine a scenario in which that could all far apart. If you're happy with the status quo, you tend to assume your customers feel the same way.

It's a similar situation when I talk to television executives. Oh, everyone recognizes that the business is changing. But few people think that the traditional (and well-oiled) current distribution model is going to change anytime soon.

What does all of this have to do with NBC's fine comedy "Community?" Allow me to explain.

One of the challenges of financing or distributing long-form video outside the current television distribution model is that someone has to pay for the production upfront. While digital advertising is increasing every year, there is no way you can afford to produce quality scripted programming and pay for it strictly with advertising.

The second challenge is on the demand side. If you're going to try and convince people to pay upfront for a show (or in this case, a 13-episode season of a show), then two factors need to be in play. You need a production that has a built-in audience, which would be willing to pay upfront for something that has yet to be produced. But you also need a project that has an audience small enough so it isn't profitable enough for a TV network to air.

There are damn few projects that would fit those parameters. It's much easier to self-finance an established series, but most of the shows that are cancelled have problems that range far beyond the costs of production.

Which is why I've spent the past couple of days mulling over an idea quickly thrown out on Twitter by "Community" creator Dan Harmon.

Two days ago, he received this question on Twitter:

@stefanielaine
Hey @danharmon, maybe consider Louis CK's distribution model for Community? I would totally pay $5 to download each episode. Fuck NBC.

Comedian Louis C.K. just released a comedy special directly to fans who paid him a $5.00 fee. According to Louis, he's already made more than $200,000 from the project. Much more than he would see via a traditional DVD release.

And this was Dan Harmon's response:

@danharmon
Works. $5 per viewer per ep, 360K viewers would pay for a season.

Harmon later tweeted that he had thrown out the idea for "funsies," but it got me thinking about what a deal like this might look like. Could you realistically produce and sell a season of a show like "Community" directly to fans?

First, we have to agree to the premise that NBC won't pick up another season of the show. And while the ratings for the show haven't been spectacular, that could be said about nearly all the programming on the network this season.

But assuming NBC doesn't pick "Community" up for next season, what are the options?

Let's assume that we're going to produce a 13-episode season. That keeps the "season pass" costs down, yet it creates enough episodes to be considered a true "season" of the show.

We also have to deal with some contractual issues. It's not clear to me that the current talent contracts would apply to an "off-TV" production, so new deals might need to be negotiated.

The other party involved in this equation is Sony Pictures Television, which co-produces and distributes "Community." They're going to not only have to sign off on any deal, they'll need to be supportive.

In some ways, this isn't as big an issue as you might suspect. Sony would like another season or two to add to the amount of "Community" episodes they have to sell in syndication. There have been rumors they would be willing to cut their fee with NBC if it would help keep the show on the network for another season. This idea gives them new episodes, and in a way that potentially would be even more lucrative for all parties.

Harmon's off-the-cuff estimate of 360,000 paying customers sounds about right, given what little we know about the ultimate shape of this deal. So let's go with that.

Web sites such as Kickstarter have been organizing similar ideas for musicians for the past several years. Granted, this is a much bigger deal, but the overall guidelines are still the same. Buyers commit to purchasing a subscription, but no one is charged until the entire amount required to finance the project is pledged.

Fans of "Community" would  given the chance to pay for a 13-episode season of "Community" for $50. That keeps the package price manageable and the remaining $15 per person would come from Sony. Or from additional subscriptions, if more than 360,000 people subscribed.

The value for subscribers is that they would get a DVD of the episodes. Before any one else sees them. Sony would retain the ownership rights to the episodes, and while they could include them in their syndication package, they could not be aired on broadcast or cable TV for a period of six months or a year.

So Sony gets a season of "Community" for free (or close to it) and they and Harmon will be making money off the episodes for decades to come. Even better, these "unseen" episodes will have even more value in the syndication market than traditionally produced episodes.

Subscribers get a season of the show that no one else can watch and if it's successful, another chance for an additional season of the show.

There are a lot of wrinkles in a deal like this that would need to be negotiated. What about selling the DVD to the public at a later date? Could Sony sell the episode individually via OnDemand (and would season subscribers get money back from the proceeds?).

But with all the complications, this is an idea that makes both financial and creative sense. Sony, Harmon and the other financial stakeholders would make money. Fans would get another season of a show they adore. And it would be interesting to see what a season of "Community" looks like if producers are able to work on episodes without notes from the network execs.